Home runs are not only one of the most exciting events in a baseball game, but they are also one of the most exciting in the realm of fantasy. The home run contributes to multiple stat categories, all in one powerful punch. Depending on the format of the league you’re in, a long ball can produce more than just the HR category, but also in the departments of runs, RBI, total bases, batting average, and slugging percentage, to name a few. . Due to the influence of multiple home run categories, the game’s high power hitters have the most influence and predicting who will hit the most each year can pay big dividends for your fantasy team’s overall performance.
The league is already about to enter its second month. The following describes some of the names that are at the top of the HR list and provides a view on whether you should expect the same result, wait longer, or in some cases expect the pace of HR. decrease. Barring a lot of time being missed due to injury, here are some predictions.
Carlos Pena (TB): Pena sits atop the HR list as of April 26 with 8 home runs smashed in the month already. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, as Pena put in a whopping 46 HR in 2007 before falling to 31 HR last season. Pena’s power is legit and while his batting average is in the .250 range and below, his power numbers can make up for it. Pena is seeing the ball well and getting pitches to hit thanks to a lineup that also features guys with last names like Longoria, Crawford and Upton. Expect Pena to hit 40-plus this season, as he seems locked into his power thus far, and the possibility of him hitting 50 remains very realistic. He’ll strike out a ton and his average won’t be anything to write home about, but barring a major backtracking plan to see his name among the home run leaders all season.
Adrian Gonzalez (SD): Gonzalez has hit 7 long balls through the first three weeks of the season and is showing his power numbers. He’s seen an increasing trend in his power numbers over the past two seasons, hitting 30 in 2007 and 36 in 2008. He got off to a fast start here in 2009, but unfortunately I don’t see Gonzalez ending up as the HR champ in the MLB or even in the National League. The power of him is very real and far from a fluke, and he would plan to see another 35-40 HR year. However, because he played at San Diego’s pitcher-friendly Petco Park for half the year, Gonzalez’s home run numbers will take a hit and he will continue to be overlooked as one of the top hitters. powerful in the game.
Albert Pujols (STL): Pujols is another National League player with 7 home runs to his name and looks unstoppable as ever. Potentially the best hitter in the league and arguably one of the best hitters of all time, Pujols can do just about anything at the plate and that includes his fair share of home runs. Through his first 8 full seasons in the majors, Pujols has hit no less than 32 home runs in any given year. His best year was 2006, where he hit 49 home runs. Pujols is usually a safe bet to assume he’ll get closer to 40 home runs year after year. A key difference between Pujols and the others is that he always seems to have an advantage, and in this case there is no difference. Pujols is expected to hit 40 home runs, but the advantage to him is that he has the potential to hit 50 or even more.
Carlos Quintin (CHW): Profiled in some of the other articles I’ve written, Quentin was a home run machine in 2008, hitting 36 before succumbing to a season-ending injury. He’s set out to prove that his 2008 stats weren’t a fluke and he’s off to a fast start crushing 7 over the fence in the first few weeks of the year. Quentin has tremendous home run potential well beyond the 40+ range in a year and closer to the 50+ range in a year. If his wrist heals from the injury he sustained in 2008, Quentin has the potential to win the HR crown for both his American League and MLB as a whole.
Others to see:
There are plenty of players to watch when it comes to the home run run of the season. Some have started fast (Penalty – 8 HR) and others have started slow on their own merit (Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, 3 HR each).
The aforementioned Fielder and Howard both have 50 HR potential, but I think only Howard will come close to that mark this season and Fielder will have to settle for a sub-40 number.
Others to watch include: Nelson Cruz of Texas, Jermaine Dye of the White Sox, Ryan Ludwick of the Cardinals, Ryan Braun of the Brewers and Adam Dunn of the Nationals, to name a select few.
