The dynamic factors of horse racing are those that change according to the way the race unfolds while it is being run. They can change in a moment and most success or failure depends on those factors. An example is rhythm. Another factor that is both dynamic and beyond the control of the human population is climate. You may have handicap races the night before and expect a fast track based on a weather forecast. Like most weather forecasts it’s foggy and of course the track is sloppy when the race is run.
The obvious solution to that problem is the handicap for both a wet and dry track. That will take more time and effort, but it can pay off in the long run. Trying to prepare for the changes is the key to mastering the dynamic to the best of your ability. Rhythm settings that develop or disappear due to scratches is perhaps one of the most frustrating aspects of being a serious horseplayer. Then, of course, there’s always the matter of track biases coming and going.
A good angle for forecasters is to note the strongest and most concrete factors first and then move towards the dynamic and easy to change factors. If you think a horse is likely to win, ask yourself what dynamic factor might cause the horse to lose and perhaps help another horse win. For example, if the main threat is to break from the outside and your team is on the wing, a slow track on the inside road could negatively affect your team and help the contender running from the outside.
When you go to the races, you will need to watch the races and determine how the track is playing. If the lane is dead, it’s time for a change of plans and that outside runner may now be your best bet. Dynamic factors are situational and therefore the rider has to be willing to adapt. Believe it or not, many of the bets he lost over the last year were affected by dynamic factors. Think about the races you lost and why the horse you backed didn’t win. Was the pace scenario different than what you predicted? Did you find out there was a bias after the race?
The health of the race horses is subject to change without prior notice. After a great race, the trainer may announce that the horse had colic a few days before the race, but the vet gave him a bill of health and the horse ran. How would that information change the way you bet? Take the time to consider as many dynamic factors as you can, and do your research before the race to nail down as much as you can. It’s still a horse race and anything can happen, but the more you know about the dynamics of the race, the better your chances of winning.
