In recent years, savvy Fantasy Football players have used the first two rounds of their draft to land runners who will rack up points for their fantasy teams. Last year, however, eight of the top ten fantasy point scorers were quarterbacks. Is this a trend that will continue in the coming seasons? I think there are some factors that will help to continue this trend.
The first factor is that most teams now employ a two-runner attack. Last season, less than half of the teams had a 1,000-yard rider. Even the Denver Broncos, who led the league in rushing as a team with more than 2,600 yards, were led by a running back who had less than 1,200 yards. (His second main running back was his quarterback.) Using a two-back attack also keeps a running back fresh in the game, providing more pressure on the defense. This is a trend that most teams are moving towards and not drifting away. Even the selection of running backs in the first round of the NFL draft has dwindled. Only 3 were selected last year and two of them were selected in the last two selections of the first round.
The second factor is that most teams are flying to move the ball. Last season, 20 quarterbacks threw for more than 3,000 yards, while in 2006 only 14 quarterbacks threw for that amount. In fact, a residual effect of the aerial assault is that 4 receivers were in the top 21 for fantasy points last season.
The final factor is the rule changes that the National Soccer League has made in recent years. They have increased the definition of defenseless players to include receivers who have caught the ball but have not had a chance to protect themselves. This takes the hit that defenders used to use to separate the ball from the receiver. Also, the rules that have been put in place to protect the quarterback in the pocket have helped make them more comfortable throwing the ball.
All of these factors lead to the conclusion that you should seriously consider selecting a quarterback in the first round of your fantasy draft. When drafting your players, consider your team’s situation, their age, and their skill set. Also take a serious look at the quarterbacks in the first and second rounds.
